Apple Hits a Roadblock as India May Witness First Ever Drop in iPhone Shipments

India could witness its first annual decline in iPhone shipments in 2026 after several years of steady growth, according to market research firms. Analysts say the expected slowdown is not being driven by weak consumer interest. Instead, limited product availability, reduced financing benefits and fewer exchange offers are making iPhones more expensive for buyers.

Despite the projected decline in shipments, industry experts believe India continues to be one of Apple’s fastest growing markets. The company still enjoys strong demand, but supply related issues are preventing it from fully meeting customer requirements. The next few quarters are expected to determine whether this slowdown is only temporary or becomes a longer trend.

Research firms have revised their shipment forecasts for the year. IDC estimates that Apple shipped around 14.3 million iPhones in India during 2025, but now expects shipments to fall by a mid single digit percentage in 2026. The revised outlook is linked to limited availability of the iPhone 15, iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 series, while reports also suggest that the launch timeline for the iPhone 18 could extend into March 2027.

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple’s iPhone shipments in India fell by around 3 percent during the April to June quarter compared to the same period last year. During the same quarter, the overall smartphone market recorded a larger decline of nearly 10 percent. Omdia noted that supply shortages in the June quarter mainly affected selected variants of the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max.

Industry observers say supply constraints have been affecting the smartphone market since late 2025. IDC India and Southeast Asia Research Manager Upasana Joshi said Apple’s growth in India started slowing from the December 2025 quarter as supply related challenges became more visible across the industry. While Apple has largely kept the official prices of older iPhone models unchanged, customers are receiving fewer financing options, exchange benefits and promotional discounts than in previous years.

These changes have increased the effective cost of buying an iPhone. Consumers who earlier relied on attractive financing plans or exchange offers now have fewer opportunities to reduce the overall purchase price. This has created additional pressure on sales even though customer interest in Apple’s products remains healthy.

IDC’s preliminary estimates suggest that India’s total smartphone shipments during the second quarter of 2026 could fall by 11 to 12 percent year on year to around 32 to 34 million units. Within this market, iPhone shipments are expected to remain flat or decline by up to 1 percent, reflecting the impact of supply limitations rather than falling demand.

The upcoming festive shopping season may also offer fewer savings for buyers. Retailers in several major cities report that supplies of the standard iPhone 17 model continue to remain tight. They also expect discounts on older iPhone models to be lower than in previous years, reducing another important incentive for customers planning an upgrade.

Traditionally, Apple lowers the price of older iPhone models by around Rs 10000 after introducing a new generation. However, analysts believe this pattern may not be repeated this year because of a different launch strategy for the iPhone 18 series. As a result, buyers may find fewer price reductions during the festive period.

Limited exchange deals, reduced financing schemes and smaller promotional discounts are expected to increase the overall cost of ownership for many consumers. This could influence purchase decisions, especially among customers waiting for festive offers before upgrading their devices.

Even with these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s long term prospects in India. The country continues to be one of the company’s most important growth markets, supported by a rising premium smartphone segment and increasing consumer interest. During Apple’s recent earnings call, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook highlighted India as one of the company’s fastest growing markets and confirmed record revenue for the June quarter.

Market experts will closely monitor supply conditions, channel inventory, festive season demand and customer upgrade trends over the next two quarters. These factors are expected to determine whether the expected decline in iPhone shipments is a short term setback or the beginning of a more prolonged slowdown in India’s premium smartphone market.